Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-16 0.058766 0.067260 0.076824 0.088446 0.102257 0.118234 0.138238
2025-11-23 0.046309 0.056750 0.069533 0.086519 0.108774 0.137330 0.177384
2025-11-30 0.038353 0.049857 0.065012 0.086842 0.118159 0.162556 0.232307
2025-12-07 0.032178 0.044083 0.060836 0.086835 0.127499 0.191079 0.303230
2025-12-14 0.026629 0.038175 0.055388 0.083950 0.132319 0.215314 0.379432
2025-12-21 0.021331 0.031726 0.047976 0.076492 0.128189 0.224469 0.435801
2025-12-28 0.018534 0.028651 0.045279 0.076278 0.136868 0.260714 0.568146
2026-01-04 0.016543 0.026543 0.043800 0.077961 0.150042 0.312469 0.773725
2026-01-11 0.014690 0.024363 0.041804 0.078280 0.160976 0.365732 1.031797
2026-01-18 0.013114 0.022417 0.039888 0.078367 0.171837 0.425921 1.377391
2026-01-25 0.011552 0.020260 0.037185 0.076168 0.176810 0.474567 1.748809
2026-02-01 0.010094 0.018088 0.034085 0.072373 0.176620 0.509346 2.122206
2026-02-08 0.009190 0.016896 0.032870 0.072935 0.189487 0.599367 2.947153
2026-02-15 0.008370 0.015755 0.031571 0.073024 0.201506 0.698726 4.087995
2026-02-22 0.007758 0.014959 0.030903 0.074654 0.219717 0.843285 6.048683
2026-03-01 0.007188 0.014170 0.030116 0.075795 0.237374 1.008149 8.981424
2026-03-08 0.006542 0.013126 0.028540 0.074265 0.244893 1.134307 12.312329
2026-03-15 0.005767 0.011696 0.025789 0.068511 0.233374 1.143089 14.182595
2026-03-22 0.005375 0.011096 0.025043 0.068891 0.248063 1.340077 21.298584
2026-03-29 0.005091 0.010712 0.024795 0.070863 0.271474 1.642227 35.574661
2026-04-05 0.004782 0.010230 0.024207 0.071550 0.289815 1.947943 57.795345
2026-04-12 0.004494 0.009763 0.023581 0.071960 0.307585 2.296505 96.045492
2026-04-19 0.004164 0.009151 0.022456 0.070242 0.313209 2.546266 144.199805